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Whether Simulating Super Bowls or Financial Portfolios, the Assumptions Matter
Statistical models are created by identifying influential random variables and then assigning characteristics to those variables. In the case of football, how many rushing yards the 49ers will gain is...
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Fumbling the Interpretation: Statistical Models and the Super Bowl
Predictionmachine.com generated a statistical model for the 2013 Super Bowl that reports a 67% probability of the 49ers winning. The probability of this outcome is different than predicting that the...
View ArticleHas California’s tax on the rich driven out the poor and middle class?
A recent article from the Wall Street Journal identifies a paradox: (i) “conservative lore” predicted rich people would leave California in response to a massive tax increase, yet, in fact, (ii) poor...
View ArticleShould you feel threatened when you see a California license plate…or just...
I frequently hear complaints of bad California drivers grumbled by both Californians and non-Californians alike. The complaint seems to be increasingly common as the ongoing California exodus marches...
View ArticleWarning: This Country Contains Daylight Saving Time
A 1996 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine is still being cited as evidence that lack of sleep that results from beginning daylight saving time increases traffic accidents. The Los...
View ArticleSha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
In 1967, The Grass Roots released a song that made it to #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, “Let’s live for Today.” Rockers Stave Barri and P.F. Sloan, about 25 and 22 years old at the time,...
View ArticleA Few More Reasons Why Cinemas Don’t Assign Seating
In a recent Betweenthenumbers post, Ben suggested several reasons why most movie theaters in the U.S. do not assign seats. Here are a few more theories to add to the list: Theory #6: Loud popcorn...
View ArticleWhat explains baseball’s massive revenues?
A chart prepared by businessinsider.com indicates that MLB grossed about $7.7 billion in 2012, well behind the NFL (about $9.5 billion) and well ahead of the NBA (about $4.3 billion). Businessinsider...
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Be sure you’re using the right calculation when assessing portfolio performance
Many investors never evaluate their investment performance beyond simply noting gains and losses. Perhaps this is because they are not aware of how to conduct a proper evaluation. A couple basic...
View ArticleIt’s a rare occurrence when the DJIA moves 0.00%
Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 14,865.06, down ever so slightly from 14,865.14, a move of 0.00%, or more precisely, -0.000538%. This non-move was especially surprising...
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Los Angeles does NOT have world’s worst traffic
But, of course, the City of Angels does claim the nation’s worst traffic. Los Angelenos speak of their congested freeways much like southeast Texans speak of their hurricanes—with a mixed sense of...
View ArticleHorrible commute? Buy stocks!
Being stuck in traffic causes plenty of anxiety. Should you add “I’m missing a bull market and need to buy stocks” to your list of traffic jam worries? Maybe. And maybe not. Traffic levels or, more...
View ArticleGeniuses and dropouts must ask: is college worth it?
More school is not for everyone. In 1973, Paul Simon–the son of a college professor and elementary school teacher–recorded a lesser known song called “Kodachrome” with the lyrics: “When I think back on...
View ArticleSports cars, 3D televisions, and education
Sports cars and 3D televisions are unprofitable investments. They cost money at the outset and keep draining cash thereafter. So why would anyone want to invest in such things? Easy: sports cars and...
View ArticleThe painful post-graduation hangover not from last night’s party
College grads are waking up the day after graduation to a nasty hangover and stinging slap of reality. Yes, the last four years were a fantastic experience. But, wow, they were expensive. Some recent...
View ArticleTime to start teaching basic personal finance in high schools
A recent survey discussed here found that a surprising number of college graduates regret their decision to attend college. Not that it wasn’t lots of fun. Plenty of that. Not that lectures lacked...
View ArticleDistribution of world’s 12 million millionaires still favors U.S.
The Economist’s chart of the day shows millionaire population counts for the twelve countries that boast the most millionaires (measured in USD). The United States dominates this comparison, with 3.4...
View ArticleShould we be using Latin for “the new normal”?
Lawyers love Latin and are known for using such phrases, shall we say, ad nauseum. Which is why I’m surprised I haven’t noticed one using Latin for “the new normal.” Instead, they’re just using “the...
View ArticleHousing starts stop
Housing’s decline drove the economy into the ground six years ago. In recent months, many have hoped that housing’s return is a sign of broad economic recovery. The picture has been rosy. The National...
View ArticleHow the information age might have doomed REI’s generous returns policy
REI, a retailer of outdoors equipment and clothing, has ended its extremely generous merchandise returns policy. This policy allowed customers to return any REI product, no matter how much time had...
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